Josh Appelbaum examines where smart money is leaning for Raiders-Buccaneers, Seahawks-Cardinals and Panthers-Eagles.
The NFL regular season enters the home stretch as we turn our attention to Week 14. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our
VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 10-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
The Raiders (2-10) have lost eight straight games and just came up short against the Chiefs 19-17 but easily covered as 13.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers (6-6) have won two straight and just outlasted the Panthers 26-23 but failed to cover as 6.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public takes one look at both team’s won-loss records and is leaning toward laying the points with the Bucs at home. However, despite receiving 57% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Tampa Bay fall from -7.5 to -6.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Raiders plus the points, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular side. At DraftKings, Las Vegas is only receiving 43% of spread bets but 54% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Raiders are only taking in 38% of spread bets but a whopping 84% of spread dollars. Both splits indicate a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in favor of Las Vegas. Road dogs getting 6.5-points or more are 24-16 ATS (60%) with a 15% ROI this season. The Raiders enjoy a rest advantage, as they last played on Friday while the Bucs played on Sunday. Las Vegas also has buy-low value as a “bad” ATS team (5-7) against a sell-high “good” ATS team. Aidan O’Connell is 9-3 ATS (75%) in his career, including 5-1 ATS (83%) on the road. Baker Mayfield is just 17-28 ATS (38%) as a favorite. Pros have hit the over as well, steaming the total up from 44.5 to 46. Some shops are even up to 46.5. The over is receiving 66% of bets but 79% of dollars at DraftKings, a sharp Pro and Joe bet split. Both teams are 8-4 to the over this season, tied for 3rd best in the NFL.
The Seahawks (7-5) have won three straight and just took down the Jets 26-21, winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Cardinals (6-6) have dropped two straight and just fell to the Vikings 23-22 but covered as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Arizona listed as low as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public sees this as a coin-flip game and are leaning toward taking the points with the Seahawks, who have the superior record and have played better as of late. However, despite 54% of spread bets taking Seattle we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Arizona -1.5 to -2.5. Several shops are juicing up the Cardinals -2.5 (-115), signaling a possible further rise up to the key number of -3. The Cardinals are only receiving 46% of spread bets but 57% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating “fade the trendy dog” smart money in their favor. Those looking to follow the sharp move but wary of laying points around a key number could also target Arizona on the moneyline at -135. The Cardinals are only getting 49% of moneyline bets but 73% of moneyline dollars, evidence of wiseguy action banking on Arizona to win straight up. Arizona has buy-low value as a team on a losing streak against a sell-high team on a winning streak. This is also a revenge spot for the Cardinals, who fell to the Seahawks 16-6 in Seattle two weeks ago. Pros are also expecting a lower scoring game, as the total has tumbled from 46 to 44.5. The under is only taking in 49% of bets but a hefty 93% of dollars at DraftKings, a massive sharp money under split. When the total falls at least a point in a divisional matchup the under is 80-59 (58%) with a 10% ROI since 2022.
The Panthers (3-9) have lost two straight and just came up short against the Buccaneers 26-23 but covered as 6.5-point home dogs. Conversely, the Eagles (10-2) have won eight in a row and just dismissed the Ravens 24-19, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 13-point home favorite. The public expects an Eagles blowout win and isn’t afraid to lay the big points. However, despite receiving 60% of spread bets we’ve seen Philadelphia fall from -13 to -12.5. Some books are even down to -12. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already laying the points with Philadelphia to begin with? Because respected smart money has gotten down on Carolina plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular road dog. At Circa, the Panthers are receiving 60% of spread bets but a massive 98% of spread dollars, further evidence of sharp players in Vegas grabbing the points with Carolina. Conference road dogs getting 10-points or more are 20-12 ATS (63%) with a 20% ROI since 2022. Jalen Hurts is just 2-5 ATS (29%) as a favorite of 10-points or more. Carolina has buy-low value as a “bad” ATS team (5-7) on a losing skid against a sell-high “good” ATS team (8-4) on a winning streak. Pro money has also leaned over, raising the total from 44.5 to 46. The Panthers are 9-3 to the over this season, tied for 2nd best in the NFL.
